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OPINION OCTOBER 02, 2026 | The Indian Eye 11

stand and hedge against the ramifi- US dependence gives it a reason to
cations of these changes. Therefore, bargain; AI can be discussed because
the question remains whether the both governments recognise the risks
Taiwan arms sales are about to be- of uncontrolled competition. But
come the second such historic move, none of these negotiations alters the
albeit in the wrong direction. underlying strategic contest.
Given that Trump wants to nego- Taiwan remains a question of
tiate over Taiwan with Xi, the latter sovereignty and deterrence, technol-
will likely push to halt the arms sales, ogy remains a question of national
or at least delay them by months or power, and the distribution of mil-
a year. If successful, even an implicit itary and economic capabilities re-
understanding would erode deter- mains contested.
rence, making China more belliger- This is why, like the last meet-
ent, the region more unstable, and ing, the optics of the summit may
the US an untrustworthy ally. The ultimately matter more than the sub-
catch here is that capitulating to Chi- stance. Xi is likely to reiterate China
nese demands on geopolitics will in- as an equal, building on the language
crease the likelihood of conflict, not of “constructive strategic stability”.
reduce it. Meanwhile, Trump will want visible
The hemispheric division high- material gains to impress his domes-
lights this problem as well. The ‘Don- tic voters ahead of the upcoming
roe Doctrine’ underscores Trump’s mid-term elections in November.
Western Hemispheric assertiveness, The two leaders therefore need not
with explicit demands that Venezu- agree on the meaning of the relation-
ela sever ties with China, Iran, Rus- ship to make the summit successful.
sia and Cuba as a precondition for They only need enough transactional
resuming oil production after Mad- AI can be discussed between the two countries because both governments recognise the progress to demonstrate that con-
uro’s capture. It tells Beijing that it risks of uncontrolled competition (File photo) frontation remains manageable.
can secure the First and Second Is- The same logic applies to the
land Chains through negotiations, as military balance. The diversion of
the highest-level American strategic three-way convergence among the remains impossible. China sees the US attention and assets towards
thinkers were contemplating the heads of rival labs was rare. While US offer of H200 chips as a strategic West Asia, combined with uncer-
same. Trump and Beijing both denied the trap, not a concession. China’s focus tainty surrounding the future force
The ongoing war in Iran made slowdown, a signed article by Chen on chip self-reliance has delivered posture in the Indo-Pacific, creates
this calculation more plausible, Yixin, Minister of State Security, results, as domestic chip production a strategic environment in which
as it is no longer abstract; assets China’s most senior intelligence offi- rose from 16 per cent to 28 per cent perceptions can matter as much as
from the Indo-Pacific have actually cial, named AI a “systemic” threat to in one year. actual capabilities. For Beijing, any
been moved to West Asia. The 31st CPC’s political security, describing it Another likely talking point will reduction in American attention to
Marine Expeditionary Unit, the as “the main battlefield of global sci- be rare earths, where China has an the region may create an opportunity
only Marine unit permanently for- entific and technological competition almost absolute monopoly, con- to test the limits of US commitment.
ward-deployed in the Indo-Pacific, and a new arena for strategic rivalry trolling 70–85 per cent of global min- For Washington, preserving deter-
with 2,500 Marines, has been in West among major powers”. ing and 90 per cent of refining and rence requires demonstrating that
Asia since March 2026. Other devel- The timing and register are processing capacity. The April 2025 other crises have not displaced com-
opments include the USS Abraham the main takeaway: only days after export-license agreement on seven petition with China. The question is
Lincoln carrier strike group depart- Chinese officials publicly dismissed heavy rare earths remains in force therefore whether the US can man-
ing the South China Sea in January Western AI-safety warnings as alarm- today, amplified by the October 2025 age multiple theatres simultaneously
2026; THAAD batteries and inter- ist, the criticism appears. It shows controls, extending Chinese jurisdic- without allowing strategic ambiguity
ceptors being removed from South the zero-sum trap: China dismissed tion to any foreign product contain- to become a strategic opportunity for
Korea, a symbol of the ‘pivot to Asia’ Western calls for a slowdown, while ing even 0.1 per cent Chinese-origin its principal competitor.
strategy that China and North Korea its top intelligence official identified rare earth content. The US has been
fought against in 2017. To sum it up: the same AI risks. It underscores that unable to diversify away from Chi- Dr. Swati Arun is an Associate Fellow
rhetorical ambiguity on arms sales, both governments are aware, at the nese rare-earth supply. US officials at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for
a live-hemispheric-swap discourse, highest level, that AI carries a gen- have complained vociferously against Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-ID-
and a degraded force posture on the uine, potentially catastrophic risk. Chinese export licensing, as exports SA), New Delhi. Her areas of research
ground suggest a significant change Still, neither can afford to act on that of permanent magnets continued to include US-China relations, great
in the international order is on the knowledge by actually slowing down, drop, which “creates ongoing uncer- power competition and China’s foreign
horizon. as in this great power competition, tainty, making full confidence pre- and security policies.
Something even more interest- unilateral restraint hands the other mature”.
ing is happening on artificial intelli- side a model capable of “rapidly dis- The Xi–Trump summit, there- Views expressed are of the author and
do not necessarily reflect the views of
gence (AI). There is an ongoing de- covering vulnerabilities in batches, fore, is unlikely to resolve the con- the Manohar Parrikar IDSA or of the
bate in the US on arresting the pace automatically chaining together at- tradictions that have spread across Government of India.
of AI innovation. Recently, Dario tack paths”, to quote Chen. the bilateral relationship; if anything,
Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, wrote This brings in the next major this meeting will highlight those dif- The full version of this article first
a piece urging the US and China to contention point–Chips, where the ferences. Trade can be negotiated appeared in the Comments section of
“slow the pace at which we improve US holds leverage. This relationship because both sides have incentives the website (www.idsa.in) of Manohar
the capabilities of AI models”. Ope- has moved further than any single to preserve commercial flows; rare Parrikar Institute for Defense Studies
nAI CEO Sam Altman and Tesla track since Busan, which also reveals earths can be traded because Chi- and Analyses, New Delhi, on Septem-
CEO Elon Musk joined the call; this most clearly why full convergence na’s dominance gives it leverage and ber 23, 2026

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